The global steel industry is navigating a complex landscape as it enters the second half of 2026. According to the World Steel Association's (worldsteel) latest Short Range Outlook, global steel demand is forecast to grow by just 0.3% in 2026 to reach 1,724 million metric tons, with a more pronounced acceleration to 2.2% growth projected for 2027, reaching 1,762 million metric tons .
"This broader recovery is being driven by distinct shifts in regional dynamics," said Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee. "In China the rate of demand contraction is finally decelerating in 2026, while demand growth across key developing markets, most notably India, remains vibrant" .
However, the outlook is not without significant headwinds. The OECD's Steel Outlook 2026 projects global steel excess capacity to reach 745 million tonnes by 2028, exceeding current OECD production by 319 million tonnes . Planned capacity additions of up to 139 million tonnes through 2028 represent a 5.7% increase from 2025 levels, while demand growth is expected to remain subdued at around 0.9% per year .
Regional Highlights:
- India remains the world's fastest-growing major steel market, with demand projected to expand by 7.4% in 2026 and accelerate to 9.2% in 2027
- China's steel demand contraction is narrowing to -1.5% in 2026 as the housing market correction nears its bottom
- The United States is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, supported by infrastructure spending and industrial policy
- The European Union and UK are expected to see 1.3% growth in 2026, driven by increased infrastructure and defense spending
