Prices Are No Longer Moving Together
Hot rolled coil (HRC) from major mills in China and Southeast Asia saw a modest uptick of around 10–10–15 per ton in late April. Meanwhile, rebar and wire rod have remained mostly flat, and some billet offers from Vietnam and Indonesia actually softened slightly.
This kind of divergence is not unusual in itself. But what stands out this time is the lack of a single driver - no big stimulus news, no major production cut announcement. Prices seem to be finding their own levels based on real demand, not just macro headlines.
What's Pushing HRC Up (for Now)
If you buy flat products, you've probably noticed that mills are less willing to negotiate aggressively compared to three months ago.
Several factors are at play:
- Lower inventories at ports: In China, social inventories of HRC have dropped to levels not seen since October last year. Some traders say restocking is happening, but slowly - and that keeps a floor under prices.
- Better export appetite from India: Indian mills, which had largely stayed out of the Asian export market for months, are coming back with offers. But their prices are not low. Instead, they seem to be testing what the market can bear, which indirectly supports offers from Chinese and Vietnamese mills.
- Logistics still messy: Freight rates from North Asia to Europe and the Middle East have been unpredictable since early spring. Some buyers told us they are paying more attention to lead times than to the ton-price itself - and that shifts bargaining power slightly back to sellers.
Why Some Products Are Not Following
On the long products side, the mood is more cautious.
Construction activity in parts of Southeast Asia has been patchy. In the Philippines and Malaysia, some infrastructure projects are moving forward, but private construction is slower than expected. That keeps rebar demand steady but not strong.
Thailand, on the other hand, saw a pickup in government-linked projects. Mills there have kept prices unchanged for six consecutive weeks - a sign that neither side wants to make the first move.
For overseas buyers, this means one thing: blanket strategies don't work well right now. What works for HRC may not work for rebar, even from the same mill.
China's Export Flow: Still the Main Story
Export volumes from China in March and early April were higher than many expected. But here is the twist: the product mix has changed. Less commodity-grade material, more semi-finished and slightly upgraded grades.
This matters for overseas buyers because it affects availability. Cheap, basic HRC is still there, but some buyers report longer mill response times for smaller orders. That may not be a policy change. It could simply be mills prioritizing larger, more predictable export contracts.
What Overseas Buyers Should Watch Closely
If you are sourcing from Asia right now, here are a few things to keep an eye on in the coming weeks:
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Currency moves
The Japanese yen and Korean won both saw wider swings against the US dollar recently. For buyers paying in USD, this affects how aggressive Japanese and Korean mills can be on pricing.
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Domestic demand in India
India has become a swing factor in Asian steel trade. If domestic demand there stays strong, fewer export offers will come out. If it softens, more tons could hit regional markets. Watch their monthly consumption data - it moves prices faster than most realize.
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Energy costs in Europe
This sounds unrelated, but it is not. When European mills struggle with high energy costs, more Asian material flows west. That reduces supply pressure inside Asia. So far in 2025, that effect has been moderate, but it could change quickly.
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Raw material trends
Iron ore prices have stayed surprisingly range-bound. But coking coal has been less stable. If coal moves up sharply in May, Asian mills will have no choice but to pass it on - especially in flat products.
Final Thought
Steel prices in Asia are not in crisis mode, nor are they booming. What we are seeing is a more fragmented, product-specific market than in the past two years.
For overseas buyers, that means paying closer attention - not just to index numbers, but to product-level trends, regional demand shifts, and mill behavior.
The best opportunities right now are not about finding the lowest headline price. They are about reading these small changes before the rest of the market does.
